Prediction: Josipović to Win Croatian Presidential Elections

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македонски (Блогерај): Предвидување: Јосиповиќ ќе победи на изборите во Хрватска
македонски (Блогспот): Предвидување: Јосиповиќ ќе победи на изборите во Хрватска

If I would need to bet on the outcome of tomorrow’s Croatian Presidential Election, I would put my money on Ivo Josipović, who I think will crush opponent Milan Bandić.

I do not base this prediction on the outcome of the first round of the elections, or the polls. News about these favor Josipović, even though A1 TV speculates [MKD] that there could be a reverse if right-wingers, and the Diaspora rally around Bandić. I base the prediction on the method I tested through the research done by Metamorphosis Foundation about the use of new media during the Macedonian Presidential elections in 2009 (PDF) [MKD].

This research showed that by measuring the support on Facebook before the election, one could accurately predict the outcome, which in case of Macedonia also meant predicting the percentages of actual votes with an error of around 1%. The method involves identifying and comparing the forms of support (profiles, pages or groups) with maximum supporters.

In case of Croatia, I identified the official pages of Ivo Josipović [CRO]—with 22,729 fans—and Milan Bandić [CRO]—with 20,853 fans. The comparison yields the prediction that the former will triumph with around 52.15% votes, while the later will win no more than 47.85% of the valid ballots.

(The data is from 20:00 hrs on January 9, 2010. While the absolute number of supporters can change over time, I think that the critical mass is achieved and that any changes will cancel out each other and the percentages would remain similar.)

Okay, now let’s wait and see if we can use Facebook again as good prediction tool.